Limit theorems for the population size of a birth and death process allowing catastrophes

The linear birth and death process with catastrophes is formulated as a right continuous random walk on the non-negative integers which evolves in continuous time with an instantaneous jump rate proportional to the current value of the process. It is shown that distributions of the population size can be represented in terms of those of a certain Markov branching process. The ergodic theory of Markov branching process transition probabilities is then used to develop a fairly complete understanding of the behaviour of the population size of the birth-death-catastrophe process.Research done while on leave at Colorado State University from the University of Western Australia and partially supported by N.S.F. grant DMS-8501763     

Genetic differentiation of Elysia timida (Risso, 1818) populations in the Southwest Mediterranean and Mar Menor coastal lagoon

Genetic variation at 10 enzyme loci was analysed in Elysia timida sacoglossan mollusc samples, originating from both coastal lagoon and marine sites. The observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.390 (Los Urrutias) to 0.277 (Tabarca). Marine and coastal lagoon populations were characterised by exclusive alleles.     

Genetic variation for foot-rot and Fusarium head-blight resistances among full-sib families of a self-incompatible winter rye (Secale cereale L.) population

The amount of genetic variation for resistance to foot rot caused by Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides, Fusarium spp., and Microdochium nivale and for resistance to head blight caused by Fusarium culmorum are important parameters when estimating selection gain from recurrent selection in winter rye. One-hundred and eighty-six full-sib families of the selfincompatible population variety Halo, representing the Petkus gene pool, were tested for foot-rot resistance at five German location-year combinations (environments) and for head-blight resistance in three environments with artificial inoculation in all but one environment. Foot-rot rating was based on 25 stems per plot scored individually on a 1–9 scale. Head-blight resistance was plotwise scored on a 1–9 scale and, additionally, grain-weight per spike was measured relative to the non-inoculated control plots. Significant estimates of genotypic variance and medium-sized heritabilities (h ²=0.51–0.69) were observed in the combined analyses for all resistance traits. In four out of five environments, the amount of genetic variance was substantially smaller for foot-rot than for head-blight rating. Considerable environmental effects and significant genotype-environment interactions were found for both foot-rot and head-blight resistance. Coefficients of error-corrected correlation among environments were considerably closer than phenotypic correlations. No significant association was found between the resistances to both diseases (r=-0.20 to 0.17). In conclusion, intra-population improvement by recurrent selection should lead to substantial higher foot-rot and head-blight resistances due to significant quantitative genetic variation within Halo. Selection should be carried out in several environments. Lack of correlation between foot-rot and head-blight resistance requires separate infection tests for improving both resistances.     

Demographic responses of an arboreal marsupial,the common brushtail possum (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Trichosurus vulpecula</Emphasis>), to a prescribed fire

We investigated demographic responses of the common brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula, a medium-sized arboreal marsupial, after a prescribed fuel reduction burn on Magnetic Island, tropical north Queensland, Australia. Possums were live-trapped every month for 14 months before the fire and 11 months after the fire in both the burnt and unburnt areas; measurements of individuals were taken each month and demographic parameters were modelled using capture–mark–recapture data. Significant differences between the burnt and unburnt sites were found following the fire; recruitment was lower in the unburnt area, where population size also declined. In the burnt area, population size and recruitment displayed a tendency to increase after the fire, while capture probability declined, suggesting that an influx of new individuals, attracted to re-sprouting vegetation, had resulted in trap saturation. There was no detectable effect of the fire on survival, and no fire-induced mortalities were observed. We conclude that a low-intensity, prescribed, fuel-reduction burn had no obvious negative consequences for this possum population.     

Ringed seal (Pusa hispida) tooth annuli as an index of reproduction in the Beaufort Sea

Multi-decadal time-series of biological indices that reflect the state of a population are rare in ecological studies, but invaluable for assessing environmental regulation of population dynamics. We utilized canine teeth extracted from ringed seals (Pusa hispida) killed by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea, Canada, in 1985–2011, to obtain widths of annual growth layers in the cementum. Canine teeth for 75 individuals were measured and compared across years using a proportional width index (PWI) spanning 1965–2007. PWI was positively correlated with ringed seal ovulation rate obtained independently from other studies and was significantly lower than normal during ringed seal reproductive declines in 1974–75, 1984–87, 1991–93, and 2004–05, suggesting that PWI reflects ringed seal reproductive capacity. The PWI was also examined against climatic and sea ice factors to assess environmental regulation of ringed seal reproduction. Results suggest that ringed seals benefit from cyclonic circulation regimes in the Beaufort Sea, and an earlier breakup of sea ice in summer that may positively influence the quality and quantity of food during the open water season. Results highlight how cementum annuli in the canine teeth of ringed seals can provide an index of body state and linkages to sea ice conditions. Canine teeth from ringed seals can function as a means to monitor the effects of past Arctic marine variability on area-specific populations for which there are few independent empirical data.     

Population growth and habitat distribution in cyclic small rodents: to expand or to change?

Habitat selection determined by intraspecific interactions (social behaviour), being either free or despotic, should result in the largest densities in the most favourable habitat at least in late increase and decline phases of cyclic populations. Habitat distribution determined by interspecific effects such as herbivore-plant or predator-prey interactions may result in higher densities in inferior habitats at late peaks and/or declines due to overgrazing of preferred habitats, or invasion of such habitats by specialist predators. An examination of the distributions of the rodent species Clethrionomys glareolus and Microtus agrestis during a population cycle on forest clearcuts at Grimsö, south-central Sweden, demonstrated clear changes towards less preferred habitats during the decline phase, particularly in M. agrestis. Intraspecific competition could be excluded as a cause since the numbers of both species declined simultaneously. There was no sign of overgrazing, while weasels, Mustela nivalis, invaded the preferred M. agrestis habitat during peak–decline. Predation thus appears more important for the local occurrence at early decline, rather than territoriality or other social behaviour. It is concluded that distributions in various habitats do not always reveal any primary habitat selection but, rather, habitat-dependent survival.     

Population structure, recruitment, and succession of the brown alga, Padina boryana Thivy (Dictyotales, Heterokontophyta), at an exposed shore of Sirinart National Park and a sheltered area of Tang Khen Bay, Phuket Province, Thailand

The brown algal genus, Padina, has a worldwide distribution in tropical and subtropical climate zones. Padina individuals are common and sometimes dominant in both the intertidal and shallow subtidal regions associated with coral reefs. We investigated the population structure and recruitment of two populations of Padina boryana at an exposed shore in Sirinart National Park (SNP) and a sheltered shore of Tang Khen Bay (TKB), Phuket Province, Thailand. From September 2005 to August 2006, the number of released spores and the height and radius of fronds were measured monthly. New recruits were recorded and monitored on manipulated permanent plots 0.25 m². The experiment was carried out monthly over a year. We found Padina recruits 1 month after the plots were cleared at both sites. There was a significant difference in percentage cover by new individuals between the two locations (P < 0.05) and also at the shore levels within the sites. At SNP, the highest recruitment was found in the uppermost zone, while at TKB high recruitment occurred at all shore levels except at 80-100 m from the shore. The factors influencing recruitment of P. boryana include wave motion, competition with other earlier successional species and sediment. The high availability of reproductive spores throughout the year, the successful recruitment and the Dictyerpa stage promote the successful establishment of Padina populations.     

pH track of expanding bacterial populations

A method of pH distribution measurements in agar nutrient media containing expanding bacterial populations is described. It is based on measuring pH microsamples taken at different points of the media. The sample volume was 10 microliters. A pH sensitive field effect transistor was used as a measuring electrode. Acidification was found to occur in glucose media, while alkalization occurred in the media containing peptone.     

Examining the impact factors of urban residential energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China – Evidence from city-level data

Rapid urbanization has exerted substantial pressure on China’s energy system and contributed to climate change. To find the key drivers of urban residential energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, this paper uses an extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model that employs city-level data to examine the influences of population scale, income level, population compactness and price on house-based residential energy consumption, energy-related CO₂ emissions and private vehicle ownership. The empirical results indicate that factors such as population scale, affluence, and population compactness can lead to increases in residential energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. In terms of transportation, income and population scale positively drive the growth of private vehicle ownership, while the fuel price negatively influences private vehicle ownership. Moreover, population scale is the most important factor in residential energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. Finally, policy recommendations are suggested for China’s urban development strategy and urban design and to encourage technology innovations that reduce residential energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.